Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 4.718858 5.593810 6.563140 7.713473 9.037999 10.511820 12.272320
2025-05-11 3.336184 4.490704 5.913532 7.780768 10.149570 13.035909 16.798076
2025-05-18 2.377156 3.580611 5.207938 7.534145 10.732079 14.926061 20.784538
2025-05-25 1.722256 2.873185 4.564306 7.169771 11.007264 16.361388 24.281532
2025-06-01 1.340523 2.450431 4.205416 7.090613 11.596860 18.218442 28.487972
2025-06-08 1.062730 2.115843 3.897643 7.004638 12.118296 19.983262 32.693759
2025-06-15 0.929427 1.992115 3.897113 7.387703 13.387993 22.968498 38.977580
2025-06-22 0.775566 1.791094 3.719935 7.431398 14.087598 25.105972 44.115439
2025-06-29 0.647880 1.608931 3.538855 7.429146 14.689428 27.117941 49.201293
2025-07-06 0.542409 1.446291 3.362039 7.399407 15.223345 29.044606 54.284573
2025-07-13 0.513238 1.447370 3.512367 8.016286 16.999259 33.250919 63.547920
2025-07-20 0.457966 1.372805 3.489242 8.278014 18.125153 36.393059 71.192288
2025-07-27 0.411065 1.310855 3.489705 8.602913 19.438083 40.038364 80.113139
2025-08-03 0.349803 1.195044 3.347421 8.603570 20.109437 42.568373 87.247845
2025-08-10 0.283262 1.044152 3.091090 8.309020 20.134538 43.870340 92.216107
2025-08-17 0.224258 0.895639 2.808067 7.903272 19.866004 44.563245 96.071114
2025-08-24 0.188468 0.808735 2.667288 7.814071 20.273609 46.627142 102.711437
2025-08-31 0.158439 0.730676 2.533603 7.719377 20.652851 48.656383 109.420549
2025-09-07 0.148055 0.720850 2.594353 8.136211 22.262777 53.375343 121.842898
2025-09-14 0.128826 0.669942 2.521298 8.183651 22.995227 56.277681 130.739403
2025-09-21 0.111160 0.618465 2.435173 8.181153 23.603706 58.955099 139.344006
2025-09-28 0.095446 0.568832 2.343784 8.148757 24.132094 61.492931 147.817565
2025-10-05 0.094608 0.587474 2.486396 8.820116 26.520898 68.369514 165.961029